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Week 1 of NBA picks, Gearing up for NCAAB

We've had a profitable first week of #NBA picks and have seen some tremendous closing line value in our totals over this early time period. Closing line value, or CLV, is a commonly used metric used to assess whether sports betting performance can be attributed to random luck or if it is sustainable moving forward. It is a measure of the movement of the market from the time a bet is made to the time a bet closes, which in sports betting terms is the start of the game where bets can no longer be made.

Since markets trend towards efficiency and sports books adjust their lines as action comes in, the closing line is the most accurate projection in the market of the game outcome, so attaining closing line value is an indication of an edge over the market.

In our totals bets so far this year, we’ve gotten closing line value in 76% of our bets, with some lines moving as much as 10 points in our favor from the time we bet to the time the game started. Seeing this gives us confidence in our process and the expectation that our totals model will continue to hold an edge over the market and generate returns over the long term. In games where we gave out a total over the past week, the line has moved with us 74% of the time.

closing line value on nba totals for current season
CLV on SBIA NBA Totals (11/1/23 - 11/7/23)

Compared to the same time period last year, moving with us 66% of the time.

early closing line value compared to last year
CLV on SBIA NBA Totals (11/1/22 - 11/7/23)

entire season of closing line value
CLV for all SBIA NBA Bets 2022-2023

Here is a breakdown of our unit returns over the past week:

NBA pick results chart for current season

units returned time series on nba picks

With #NCAAbasketball ramping up yesterday, we are gearing up for our #NCAAB season and our modeling team will be using the next several days to ensure data is flowing accurately. Our #collegebasketball picks begin on November 15th! Tune into the Greg Peterson Experience on VSiN tonight to hear our lead modeler discuss the current #NBA environment, as well as what we have in store for our upcoming NCAAB launch!

Grab your free week of picks here!

Watch The Analytics Behind Our Basketball Modeling

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