Even though we are barely into October, it’s not to soon to think about possible Super Bowl trends, and here’s a fairly surprising one: Since 2011, only one Super Bowl champion has lost more than one game in October during its title season and that was Kansas City in 2019. The 2023 Chiefs currently are +550 co-favorites to win Super Bowl 58 in Las Vegas with the San Francisco 49ers.
There is one HUGE asterisk on that 2019 #ChiefsKingdom team. It might not have lost twice that October but Patrick Mahomes missed a couple of games injured, including a 31-24 home defeat to Green Bay with Matt Moore under center. Aaron Rodgers had three TD passes that day for the Packers. He and Mahomes still have never faced off. They were finally set to do so last Sunday night when the Chiefs visited MetLife Stadium but of course Rodgers is out for the year.
Kansas City opened October with a 23-20 escape over the Jets and there likely are not two losses this month on the schedule: The Chiefs are 4-point favorites on Sunday at one-win Minnesota, then host Denver and the LA Chargers before closing the month in Denver.
San Francisco has won 14 straight regular-season games yet could certainly lose at home Sunday night in a playoff rematch against Dallas and then has a possible trap game in Cleveland in Week 6 before visiting the Vikings and closing the month home to Cincinnati.
The following teams have already lost a game in October: Bears, Bengals, Browns, Cardinals, Colts, Dolphins, Falcons, Giants, Jets, Panthers, Patriots, Raiders, Saints and Steelers. Go ahead and eliminate Washington, which lost its second October game on Thursday night.
The only realistic Super Bowl contenders in that group are Miami, Cincinnati and maybe Pittsburgh – if the Bengals and Steelers can get their acts together and solve their offensive problems.
Super Bowl champions' record in October since 2001
2011 Giants 3-1
2012 Ravens 2-1
2013 Seahawks 3-1
2014 Patriots 4-0
2015 Broncos 3-0
2016 Patriots 4-1
2017 Eagles 5-0
2018 Patriots 4-0
2019 Chiefs 1-3
2020 Buccaneers 3-1
2021 Rams 4-1
2022 Chiefs 3-1