Little faith in Jordan Love? Packers-Bears Week 1 total taking significant under lean
The Green Bay Packers had an unprecedented run at quarterback between Brett Favre (three-time MVP) and Aaron Rodgers (four). Between then, the #GoPackGo had an MVP starting QB (future or former) in 31 straight seasons, the longest streak in NFL history. A new era begins Sept. 10 in Chicago with Jordan Love taking the reins, and it’s likely not a coincidence that Packers-Bears is taking the heaviest under lean at most major books of any Week 1 game with the total set at 44.5 points.
Favre and Rodgers both owned the Bears in the NFL’s oldest rivalry. Including a 2010 playoff victory, Green Bay has won 24 of the last 29 meetings between the rivals at Soldier Field, including 12 of the last 13. Overall, the Packers have won eight straight in the series. It was extremely rare for Green Bay to be held under 24 points against Chicago with Rodgers under center – the Packers scored 27 and 28 points in sweeping last year. The over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Chicago.
Love has one NFL start to his career, which was Week 9 of the 2021 season in Kansas City when Rodgers was out after testing positive for COVID. Love struggled, hitting 19 of 34 for 190 yards, a TD and a pick as Green Bay lost 13-7.
Maybe it’s Bears fans slamming the under because Packers fans surely see a Chicago defense that ranked last in the NFL in 2022 in allowing 27.2 ppg – the over hit in 10 of 17 games. The #DaBears were aggressive on that side of the ball in free agency and the draft, but the pass rush looks to again be a problem. Chicago had an NFL-worst 20 sacks last year. San Francisco 49ers end and Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa had 18.5 himself.
By all accounts, Love has looked sharp for most of camp and he was very efficient in the preseason opener, completing 7-of-10 passes for 46 yards and a touchdown in the Packers' 36-19 win at Cincinnati last week. Love did fail to connect on one wide-open to rookie tight end Luke Musgrave for what would've been a sure first down but instead led to a punt.
On the season, Love has over-under totals of 3350.5 passing yards, 21.5 touchdowns and 12.5 interceptions. He is a +1300 third favorite to lead the league in picks – Favre did twice. Green Bay has the longest Super Bowl odds (+6000) and its lowest win total (7.5) since 2007, which was the last time the Packers entered a season without Rodgers as their starting quarterback.
Even with Rodgers, the Packers started terribly on offense the past two years and both of those on the road: Losing 23-7 at Minnesota in 2022 and 38-3 at New Orleans (in Jacksonville) the year before. SBIA's Week 1 model will be out soon.