Lions vs. Packers NFL Week 4: Bettors leaning Detroit with Taylor Decker, David Montgomery returning
Week 4 kicks off tonight in the #NFL with one of its oldest rivalries as the Detroit Lions visit the Green Bay Packers. These are not your father’s Packers any longer because they are 2-point underdogs – neither Brett Favre nor Aaron Rodgers was ever a home dog in the series. There was a chance that the #GoPackGo could be favored by kickoff if some injury designations went a certain way, but that will not happen with the Lions expecting running back David Montgomery and left tackle Taylor Decker back from injury.
It seems almost impossible to type this, but it’s the first time ever that the Packers have hosted the #OnePride on a Thursday even though the NFC North rivals have played a combined 185 regular-season games. They will play in Detroit on Thanksgiving later this year.
While Green Bay has won 28 of the past 32 meetings at home in the series including playoffs, it lost in Week 18 last year with the NFC’s final wild card spot on the line. Aaron Rodgers’ last-ever pass for the Packers was an interception by Detroit’s Kerby Joseph with about three minutes remaining to essentially clinch the 20-16 upset.
Dating to 2021, the Lions have won the past three overall in the series and haven’t won four in a row since 2017-18. As noted, Favre and Rodgers were favored in all 29 home starts vs. Detroit, but that’s not to say this is the first time this century that the Lions are favored Lambeau. They were in 2011 when Matt Flynn started at QB for Green Bay and again in 2017 vs. Brett Hundley.
Both Montgomery and Decker missed Sunday’s 20-6 win over Atlanta but will play. Montgomery has 141 yards rushing and two scores in his two games with his new team. Detroit will be without two other offensive linemen in starting right guard Halapoulivaati Vaitai and swing tackle Matt Nelson.
This spread dropped to -1.5 briefly this morning when it was announced that Green Bay would see the season debut off injury of No. 1 WR Christian Jones and also the return of No. 1 running back Aaron Jones after missing the past two but then the positive Detroit news pushed it back to -2.
Green Bay is without two starters up front in left tackle David Bakhtiari and left guard Elgton Jenkins with right tackle Zach Tom questionable. Linebacker De’Vondre Campbell is out. Pro Bowl cornerback Jaire Alexander missed Week 3 but likely will play.
This will be Jordan Love’s first regular-season primetime start at QB for the Packers, who are one of five unbeaten ATS teams this season despite the one SU loss in Atlanta. Love is now 2-2 SU as a starter in his career (4-0 ATS). He has the NFL’s lowest completion percentage (52.4%) but has thrown seven TDs and led a comeback from down 17 points down Sunday to beat New Orleans.
This decade, Thursday home teams are 21-33 ATS, including 19-29 ATS in night Thursday games, the worst of any day for home teams at night. At one major US book, 77% of bets and 74% of money are on the Lions ATS and 54% of bets and 67% of money on Over the total.