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Eagles vs. Buccaneers Monday NFL Week 3: Trends favor Baker Mayfield & Bucs for home cover

The first game of the Week 3 Monday night doubleheader is the only matchup of the week featuring unbeaten teams, in a surprise, as the Philadelphia Eagles visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with a 7:15 p.m. ET kickoff. The last time these teams played it was the final playoff win ever for ex-Bucs QB Tom Brady. Philly is currently a 5-point favorite tonight, but the SBIA Model recommends taking the points.

Since 2003 when two undefeated NFL teams play, the home side is 64-47-3 against the spread, a cover percentage of 59. Home underdogs are 29-14 (67%) ATS.

Philadelphia’s Jalen Hurts is just the sixth quarterback ever to go 19-1 in a 20-game regular-season span, but Hurts is 7-13 ATS in his career on the road (worst of any QB since 2020) compared to 14-5-1 ATS at home. Hurts is 5-10 ATS in his first road game off of a home game as this is. One book is showing a sizable lean on the #FlyEaglesFly, however, with 74% of bets and 72% of money on the spread.

Baker Mayfield is 2-0 for the first time in his career.

Rather improbably, Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield has been the NFL’s best quarterback on third down, completing 87% of his passes (20-for-23) for a stellar rating of 132.1. Entering Week 3, all other QBs combined to complete 63.7% of their passes on third down for a rating of 84.7. Mayfield hasn’t turned the ball over and it’s just the third time in franchise history that the Bucs have made it through the first two games of the season without committing a single turnover on offense

Mayfield is off to a 2-0 start for the first time in his career. The Eagles entered Week 3 having allowed an NFL-high seven passing TDs after not allowing the seventh until the sixth game of 2022.

There are still many skeptics over the #GoBucs considering the two teams they have beaten, the Vikings and Bears, are a combined 0-6. A win would give Tampa Bay its first 3-0 start to a season since 2005. In both their wins, the Eagles have built big leads and have had to stave off late rallies by New England and Minnesota. Those clubs have combined for just one victory.

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