Dolphins vs. Patriots NFL Week 2: Tua Tagovailoa (good), Mac Jones (bad) spread trends are striking
Peyton Manning rarely got the better of New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick. Ben Roethlisberger rarely did, either. They are both two-time Super Bowl champions and Hall of Famers. It obviously helped that Belichick had Tom Brady. He hasn’t since 2020, and that’s the main reason why Miami’s Tua Tagovailoa on Sunday can become the second QB to ever beat Belichick in five straight starts. The #FinsUp are 3-point road favorites, up from an open of -2.
It's the first Sunday night game between the franchises since 1991. Tua’s 4-0 record (4-0 ATS) is tied for the most wins without a loss by any QB vs Belichick, including playoffs, along with Hall of Famer John Elway. The only other QB to win five straight games vs. Belichick was Neil O’Donnell with six in a row, including playoffs, from 1993-95 while he was with Pittsburgh and Belichick was coaching Cleveland.
The #GoPats were 25-20 home losers in Week 1 to Philadelphia and are now 25-27 since Brady left, including playoffs. New England was almost never a home dog under Brady. This will be the seventh time post-TB12 and the #ForeverNE are 0-6 straight up and 1-5 ATS. Dating to last season, the Patriots are 0-5 ATS in the past five overall, tied for the team’s second-longest ATS losing streak behind seven straight in 1986. Brady’s longest ATS skid was five in 2002.
His replacement, Mac Jones, is 0-10 ATS in past 10 starts as underdog including playoffs. Jones is coming off his first career game with at least 300 passing yards and three TDs. His 35 completions and 54 attempts were the most among any player in Week 1.
Miami has covered five straight against New England, one without Tua. He led the NFL with 466 yards passing in the Fins’ wild win at the Chargers, the fourth-most in Week 1 in league history. He is set at over-under 266.5 yards for Sunday. Of course, Jones replaced Tua as Alabama’s starting QB when Tagovailoa was drafted in 2020.
Tyreek Hill was spectacular with 11 catches, 215 yards and two scores. The most receiving yards through two games of a season is 357 by Charlie Joiner in 1981. Hill has not had a 100-yard game in each of his past five against New England dating to Hill’s Chiefs days. He is set at over-under 84.5 yards.