When it comes to #betting on basketball totals, it is easy to focus on the strength of the team’s offense and defense. Strong defense is able to limit the opposing team’s shot percentage and thus their point total. While this is important, shot percentage can be pretty noisy from day to day, which makes it difficult to predict and rely on to get you on the right side of the total consistently.
What is more consistent from day to day is how quickly a team is playing:
More possessions = more shot attempts = more points scored on average.
While most teams have only played a few games so far this year (and there is plenty of time for these tendencies to evolve) here’s an early look at the top 10 fastest playing teams so far this year and the top 10 slowest. Outside of a very anomalous shot percentage from these teams or their opponents, you can typically expect the pace of play to trend with the total points scored.
As far as our methodology goes, the totals market is an area that we have identified as a weakness where we plan to exploit our edge. For our college basketball picks, you can expect more than 75% of our picks to be in the totals market. Don’t believe us? Even the most reputable sports books will only accept bets up to $2,000 on NCAAB totals, while they will allow $10,000 - $20,000 on NCAAB sides. They know it’s a market that is beatable, and our system can help you do so.
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