Chiefs' Andy Reid has been terrific ATS coach in NFL regular season but not preseason
There is no tried and true way to bet the #NFL preseason, but all good handicappers will take into account a coach’s record in exhibition games as that tends to hint at whether said coach cares about winning meaningless matchups or not. For example, Baltimore’s John Harbaugh is an absurd 38-16-1 against the spread in the preseason and the Ravens have won 23 straight games entering their matchup Saturday vs. the Eagles.
Harbaugh is a fine head coach with his one Super Bowl ring, but Kansas City’s Andy Reid is a future Hall of Famer with his two – and perhaps a few more at least as long as quarterback Patrick Mahomes stays healthy. KC is a +600 favorite to repeat next February in Las Vegas.
Reid is also one of the greatest regular-season ATS coaches with a 205-178-3 mark dating to his Eagles days, a cover percentage of 53.5. Most would agree that Bill Belichick is the greatest NFL coach, and he’s 250-189-11 ATS in his regular-season career, a cover percentage of 56.9. Most of that success, though, came with Tom Brady as the Pats haven’t been near as good of a bet since he left for Tampa Bay.
Yet Reid’s #ChiefsKingdom teams in the preseason are just 33-37-1 ATS with KC opening the 2023 exhibition slate as a 3-point underdog in New Orleans on Sunday. The Chiefs were 2-1 SU and ATS last year in the preseason. Kansas City is one of just five teams – along with the Steelers, Bills, Cowboys and Seahawks — that will not have any joint practices with another team in camp.
Why not? Here’s a previous take from Reid: “I’ve just never been that big on that. A lot of teams do it. A lot of successful teams do it. I really don’t want to give anybody anything that I don’t have to give. ... Had a lot of opportunities to do it, but probably from a selfish standpoint, in today’s world, with technology, there’s not a lot of secrets. You have your coaching points, teaching points — you try to teach on the field — and I really don’t want anyone hearing that. That’s my own personal feeling. As much as I can keep in-house in today’s world, I want to do.”
Reid isn’t expected to play many starters either at all or very long Sunday, but Mahomes will play the first quarter in a bit of a surprise. The two-time MVP played a total of 36 snaps over the first two preseason games last year. He didn't play in the final exhibition game.
#Saints coach Dennis Allen indicated that new QB Derek Carr and other starters will get at least some playing time.
"It's a new season, a new group, and I want to see our guys play," Allen said, per Nola.com adding that the plan is to play the starters "at least in the first preseason game, and then we'll see where we're at."
Allen’s teams dating to his Raiders days are 5-10 ATS in the preseason, also among the worst marks among active coaches as you can see below.
Best/Worst ATS records for active coaches in NFL preseason
John Harbaugh 38-16-1 ATS
Sean McDermott 12-5-1 ATS
Pete Carroll 27-19-1 ATS
Frank Reich 8-4-2 ATS
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Matt LaFleur 3-7 ATS
Doug Pederson 8-12 ATS
Dennis Allen 5-10 ATS
Andy Reid 33-37-1 ATS
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