Cardinals vs. 49ers NFL Week 4: Biggest spread of season but history says Niners will not cover
Perhaps the least talented and most talented rosters in the #NFL face off Sunday in Week 4 as the Arizona Cardinals visit the San Francisco 49ers, who are on extra rest and at -14 are the biggest favorites of the season thus far. In the past five seasons, favorites of at least 14 points are 49-7 straight up but just 24-30-2 against the spread, a cover percentage of only 44.
San Francisco’s last loss as at least a 14-point favorite was Oct. 29, 1995, when it was upset 11-7 at home by New Orleans. The #Niners are 14-0 in this scenario since and 8-5-1 ATS.
The 49ers enter on a 13-game regular-season winning streak, the second-longest in team history, after easily handling the New York Giants on Thursday in Week 3 – the Niners have scored exactly 30 points in each of their first three games (averaging 30.4 during streak) and are set at over-under 29.5 points Sunday. The Niners have scored at least 30 points in six straight regular-season games, the longest streak in team history.
Christian McCaffrey has scored at least one TD in 12 games in a row, tying the team record. The Niners are 12-0 all-time with him in the regular season and 8-0 under QB Brock Purdy. The longest regular-season winning streak to begin a career as a starting QB in the NFL is 15 by Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger.
The Cardinals can become the first team to win back-to-back games as at least 11-point underdogs since the 1976 Chiefs. They were +11 at home last Sunday and stunned Dallas 28-16. Might surprise you to know that Arizona is one of five teams with a halftime lead in all three games this season, joining legit Super Bowl contenders in Buffalo, Kansas City, Miami and Philadelphia.
Arizona hasn’t won back-to-back games overall since 2021 and was outscored 76-23 in the two-game sweep last year by the Niners. It was the first time San Francisco won two games by at least 25 points against the same team in one season since 1995 vs. the Rams.
The #BirdGang have lost eight straight games as at least 14-point dogs but are 4-4 ATS.