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Bucs-Saints NFL Week 4: Lone total under 40 points with Derek Carr in doubt but Alvin Kamara back

It has been a very unusual first three weeks of the #NFL season in regards to totals. In Week 1, unders hit in 12 of 16 games, but in Week 2 the overs prevailed 13-3. In Week 3, unders again were king at 13-3. The lone team at 3-0 to the under is the New Orleans Saints, and their Week 4 home matchup vs. Tampa Bay has the lowest total of Week 4 at 39.5 points n part because Saints quarterback Derek Carr is in doubt.

New Orleans led 17-0 in the third quarter Sunday in Green Bay but lost Carr in that quarter for the game to a shoulder injury and ended up losing 18-17. Carr was 13-for-18 for 103 yards with a TD and a pick before leaving. His backup, Jameis Winston, was 10-for-16 for 101 yards in relief. He got the Saints in position for a potential game-winning field goal, but rookie kicker Blake Grupe missed a 46-yard attempt with a minute to go.

The former No. 1 overall pick of the Buccaneers seems very likely to start Sunday as Carr is week-to-week with an AC joint sprain. The Saints have started eight different quarterbacks since 2019.

Derek Carr hurt his shoulder on this play vs. Green Bay.

Winston is 6-4 as a starter with New Orleans after going 28-42 with Tampa Bay. The good news for Winston is that Pro Bowl running back Alvin Kamara will play after missing the first three games suspended. Kamara's next TD will be No. 73 overall, a franchise record. New Orleans is 62-26 all-time with him in the lineup and 3-7 without. The Saints have yet to top 20 points in game this season or since Week 15 last year. They are set at 21.5 for Sunday.

That underrated #Saints defense has now allowed 20 points or fewer in 11 straight games, tied for the longest such streak in the NFL this century with the 2018-19 New England Patriots.

Tampa Bay is set at over-under 18.5 points for Sunday on a short week after losing 25-11 at home to Philadelphia on Monday. The Bucs were outgained 472 to 174 in total yards. New Orleans is allowing just 288.0 yards per game and 16.7 points per game, the latter ranking sixth in the NFL. Tampa Bay has landed under its team total in 15 of the past 21 games.

That 2-0 start may have been a mirage for the #GoBucs considering they beat the Bears and Vikings, both of whom are still winless. Baker Mayfield completed 15 of 25 passes for 146 yards, one touchdown and an interception on Monday, his first pick of the year. He looked a lot more mortal against a better defense. Tampa Bay had the NFL’s worst running game last year and it’s not much better in 2023 at 78.0 ypg.

The under has hit in three straight Bucs-Saints game with no more than 33 points scored in any.

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