Where The Magic Happens
Where the Magic Happens
While our NCAAMB modeling approach is similar to the NBA methodology, there are some specifics that must be handled differently. We’ve already discussed volume: the larger the volume of teams & games, the better the outcome because we can be more selective in our picks.
NCAAMB has more than 10 times the number of teams than the NBA, with a much wider range of ability within those teams. For this reason, the strength of the opponent must be strongly considered in our evaluation of team performances & how we project that team to perform in the future.
Using our player & team-level metrics, the ability of opposing teams & players is always considered. By effectively evaluating every performance relative to opponent strength, we can extract the true signals of team and player ability ensuring we are not deceived by strength of schedule.
Additionally, we are dealing with collegiate players instead of professionals, that are still honing their skills & vary greatly in their development. On a team level, roster construction can change dramatically from year-to-year. For these reasons, as well as a shorter season, we allow for faster adjustments so we can quickly converge to their true ability.
Taking these adjustments into consideration, we dial in the spots where we make plays. We may avoid games where the result of the bet is not a product of the skill difference between the teams.
Overall, we've adapted our basketball approach in the college environment to find an optimal balance of selecting the best opportunities while retaining our key unit generating feature - volume.
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* ROI based upon a $400 unit wager and starting bankroll of 16K.
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